Todd Blanche: Press briefing, Sep 15, 2026
Kalshi What will Todd Blanche say during his WH Press Briefing?
Markets
22 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fraud | Yes | 69%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 54%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Midterm / Election | Yes | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | Yes | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Weaponize / Weaponized / Weaponization | Yes | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 45%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| FBI | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 35%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 24%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 50%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hormuz | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ID / Identification | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vance | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sanctuary | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTBLAMENTION-26SEP15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP