Todd Blanche: Hearing, Jul 15, 2026
Kalshi What will Todd Blanche say during his Senate Confirmation hearing?
Markets
17 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 62%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 60%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | Yes | 56%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Weaponize / Weaponized / Weaponization | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| FBI / Comey | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | Yes | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 52%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 51%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | Yes | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| January 6 / J6 | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | Yes | 40%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pam / Bondi | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Venezuela / Maduro | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| UFO / UAP / Extraterrestrial | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26JUL15B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP