Todd Blanche: Speech, Sep 10, 2026
Kalshi What will Todd Blanche say during RNC Midterm Convention?
Markets
12 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fraud | Yes | 66%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / Border | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crime / Criminal | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 29%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Weaponize / Weaponized / Weaponization | No | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| FBI | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 50%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Talarico | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | No | 41%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTBLAMENTION-26SEP10 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP