NewsNation: Episode, Apr 23, 2026
Kalshi What will Todd Blanche say during Katie Pavlich Tonight?
Markets
14 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fraud | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SPLC / Southern Poverty Law Center | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pam / Bondi | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democrat | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crime / Criminal | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kash / Patel | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Maduro | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Prediction Market | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | No | 24%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNEWSNATIONMENTION-26APR23 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP