Todd Blanche: Press conference, Apr 27, 2026
Kalshi What will the DOJ say during the WH Correspondents Dinner press conference?
Markets
17 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| California | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Chicago | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hotel | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Manifesto | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Quantico | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Secret Service | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shotgun | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Train / Amtrak | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Butler | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drone | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Radical / Radicalized | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | No | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOLITICSMENTION-26APR27 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP