Todd Blanche: Press conference, Aug 12, 2026
Kalshi What will Todd Blanche say during his Press Conference?
Markets
13 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fraud | Yes | 62%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Taxpayer | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| New York | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 62%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 55%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 54%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fauci | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pool / Vandalism | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | No | 39%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 24%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 23%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOLITICSMENTION-26AUG12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP