What is the probability Kathy Hochul says “Trump / President” next time?

53%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Kathy Hochul say “Trump / President”?

Name: Kathy Hochul: “Trump / President” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 27, 2026, Kathy Hochul said “Trump / President” at 9 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 21, 2026 (64%), most recently on Jun 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 53% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.

53%from settlement history only · n=14counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes yes no no no no
Streak: not said the last 4 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 27, 2026, 16:23 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Kathy Hochul

Trump / President

Probability: 53% · n=14
Settled: 9/14 (64%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Kathy Hochul yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

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What will Kathy Hochul say during her announcement? · settled no

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