Kathy Hochul: Remarks, May 29, 2026
Kalshi What will Kathy Hochul say during her ICE announcement?
Markets
15 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | 74%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Trump / President | Yes | 68%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crime / Criminal | Yes | 66%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Warrant | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Buffalo | Yes | 54%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 45%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 78%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Mayor / Mamdani | No | 72%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 63%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 58%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Childcare | No | 57%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deportation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Knicks | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| New Jersey | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Billionaire | No | 17%n=8 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHOCHULMENTION-26MAY29 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP