Will Jamie Raskin say “Trump”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Jamie Raskin said “Trump” at 4 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 12, 2026 (80%), most recently on Apr 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 6, 2026 – Oct 6, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 4/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jamie Raskin
Trump
- Probability
- 41% · n=5
- Settled
- 4/5 (80%)
- Last 2 episodes
- said in 2 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Jamie Raskin say “Trump”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Jamie Raskin said “Trump” at 4 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 12, 2026 (80%), most recently on Apr 2, 2026.
- What is the probability Jamie Raskin says “Trump” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jamie Raskin: ‘Trump’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jamie-raskin/words/trump (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jamie-raskin&word=trump · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jamie-raskin&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP