All In with Chris Hayes (MS NOW), October 6, 2026
On the Oct 6, 2026 episode of All In with Chris Hayes, 5 of the 15 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 14 of 15 settlements. Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Updated
Markets
15 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 15- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 4 | 6 | ✓ | 50%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Investigate / Investigated / Investigation | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Republican | Yes | 1 | 39 | ✓ | 52%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 1 | 5 | ✓ | 52%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 1 | 10 | ✓ | 50%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 3 | 45 | ✗ | 57%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Blanche | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 53%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| First Amendment | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 44%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ballroom / Pool | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 0 | 11 | ✓ | 41%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / DHS | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
counts and timings onlyCaptions · machine-attributed · Internet Archive TV News Archive (broadcast captions) · Source · Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
45 matches for “Trump”; counts and timings only, no caption text.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Where the listed words were said
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/all-in-with-chris-hayes:2026-10-06:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=all-in-with-chris-hayes:2026-10-06:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP