Will “Constitution” be said on All-In Podcast next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Constitution” was said on All-In Podcast in 3 of 15 episodes with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 3, 2026 (20%), most recently on Jul 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 25% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 11, 2026 – Oct 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 3.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no no yes no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- anyone
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
All-In Podcast
Constitution
- Probability
- 25% · n=15
- Settled
- 3/15 (20%)
- Last 4 episodes
- said in 3 of 4
Next listing counts: anyone
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…repeatedly rewrite the documents that govern them. So like documents like Claude Constitution and those other kinds of things. And they went through 20 rounds…
…back up on was the discussion that we had around the Claude Constitution and how Anthropic was training Claude. And I think it has to…
…the old principle of giving customers what they want. What Anthropic is trying to do is align Claude to the values expressed in its constitution.
Every settled listing
newest first · 15 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Constitution |  Polymarket | No |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Constitution | Polymarket | Yes |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Constitution | Polymarket | No |
| Jul 10, 2026 | Constitution | Polymarket | No |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Constitution | Polymarket | Yes |
| Jun 19, 2026 | Constitution | Polymarket | No |
| Jun 12, 2026 | Constitution | Polymarket | No |
| May 29, 2026 | Constitution | Polymarket | Yes |
| May 22, 2026 | Constitution | Polymarket | No |
| May 15, 2026 | Constitution | Polymarket | No |
| May 8, 2026 | Constitution | Polymarket | No |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Constitution | Polymarket | No |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Constitution | Polymarket | No |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Constitution | Polymarket | No |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Constitution | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often is “Constitution” said on All-In Podcast?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Constitution” was said on All-In Podcast in 3 of 15 episodes with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 3, 2026 (20%), most recently on Jul 24, 2026.
- What is the probability “Constitution” is said on All-In Podcast next time?
- 25%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “All-In Podcast: ‘Constitution’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/podcasts/all-in-podcast/words/constitution (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=all-in-podcast&word=constitution · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=all-in-podcast&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP