All-In Podcast: Episode, Apr 17, 2026
Polymarket What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (April 17)
Markets
24 words · 11 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | Yes | 79%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Software | Yes | 66%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Event | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Open Source | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI 35+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dollar 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| King / Queen | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Security | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock market | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Regulatory | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Alignment | Yes | 29%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Nvidia | No | 69%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Astronaut | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Blue ocean | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Canada | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Comparison | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Competent | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Macroeconomy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Moon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Telescope | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Constitution | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Deepfake | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Mark Zuckerberg | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-on-the-next-all-in-podcast-april-17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP