All-In Podcast: Episode, May 15, 2026
Polymarket What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (May 15)
Markets
24 words · 6 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | Yes | 84%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Software | Yes | 74%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Nvidia | Yes | 66%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Innovation | Yes | 65%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI 20+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cancer | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Disruptive | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Regulatory | No | 54%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Microsoft | No | 49%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hollywood | No | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Federal Reserve | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Plastic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Security | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Telescope | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Biology | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Globalization | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Miracle | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Closed source | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Competent | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Alignment | No | 32%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Macroeconomy | No | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Deepfake | No | 24%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution | No | 21%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-on-the-next-all-in-podcast-may-15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP