All-In Podcast: Episode, Apr 3, 2026
Polymarket What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (April 3)
Markets
20 words · 10 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 71%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Anthropic | Yes | 66%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Polymarket | Yes | 66%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Nvidia | Yes | 63%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Safety | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI 15+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Computer | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Event | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Software | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – | |
| Constitution | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Construction | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deepfake | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mark Zuckerberg | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Poland | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Regulatory | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Silicon Valley 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sam / Altman | No | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Alignment | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Seminar | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-on-the-next-all-in-podcast-april-3 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP