All-In Podcast: Episode, Apr 24, 2026
Polymarket What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (April 24)
Markets
23 words · 7 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | Yes | 81%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Open source | Yes | 66%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI 35+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Disruptive | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hollywood | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Innovation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shit 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Security | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Regulatory | No | 57%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Biology | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Blue state | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Closed Source | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fuck 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hillary / Clinton | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| San Francisco | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Canada | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Macroeconomy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Telescope | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Palantir | No | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution | No | 29%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Deepfake | No | 29%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Mark Zuckerberg | No | 29%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-on-the-next-all-in-podcast-april-24 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP