Will “Tariff” be said on The Weeknight next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was not said on The Weeknight in any of the 4 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 30% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 16, 2026 – Oct 19, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.
- Last 10
- 0/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Weeknight
Tariff
- Probability
- 30% · n=4
- Settled
- 0/4 (0%)
- Last 5 episodes
- said in 0 of 1 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often is “Tariff” said on The Weeknight?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was not said on The Weeknight in any of the 4 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 6, 2026.
- What is the probability “Tariff” is said on The Weeknight next time?
- 30%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Weeknight: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-weeknight/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-weeknight&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-weeknight&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP