Will “Election” be said on The Weeknight next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Election” was said on The Weeknight in 3 of 8 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 7, 2026 (38%), most recently on Oct 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 16, 2026 – Oct 19, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.
- Last 10
- 3/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Weeknight
Election
- Probability
- 52% · n=8
- Settled
- 3/8 (38%)
- Last 5 episodes
- said in 1 of 1 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted; 6 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Counts: named speaker only
5 counted; 24 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted; 7 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | Election |  Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Election” said on The Weeknight?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Election” was said on The Weeknight in 3 of 8 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 7, 2026 (38%), most recently on Oct 19, 2026.
- What is the probability “Election” is said on The Weeknight next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Weeknight: ‘Election’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-weeknight/words/election (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-weeknight&word=election · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-weeknight&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP