The Beat with Ari Melber: Episode, Jul 14, 2026
Kalshi What will Cory Booker say during MS NOW: The Beat with Ari Melber?
Markets
16 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| DOJ / Department of Justice / Justice Department | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oath | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Attorney General / AG | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Personal Lawyer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Todd / Blanche | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unfit / Unqualified | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| War / War Powers | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTHEBEAT-26JUL14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP