Will “Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional” be said on The Beat next time?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional” was said on The Beat in 2 of 3 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 10, 2026 (67%), most recently on Jul 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 50% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 episodes we have transcripts for (Aug 25, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Beat with Ari Melber
Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional
- Probability
- 50% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
- Last 2 episodes
- said in 0 of 1 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Unconstitutional / Constitution / Constitutional | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional” said on The Beat?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional” was said on The Beat in 2 of 3 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 10, 2026 (67%), most recently on Jul 14, 2026.
- What is the probability “Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional” is said on The Beat next time?
- 50%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Beat: ‘Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-beat-with-ari-melber/words/constitution-or-constitutional-or-unconstitutional (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-beat-with-ari-melber&word=constitution%20%2F%20constitutional%20%2F%20unconstitutional · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-beat-with-ari-melber&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP