Will “Vance” be said on The Beat next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Vance” was not said on The Beat in any of the 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 25, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 episodes we have transcripts for (Aug 25, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Beat with Ari Melber
Vance
- Probability
- 43% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 2 episodes
- said in 0 of 1 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often is “Vance” said on The Beat?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Vance” was not said on The Beat in any of the 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 25, 2026.
- What is the probability “Vance” is said on The Beat next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Beat: ‘Vance’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-beat-with-ari-melber/words/vance (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-beat-with-ari-melber&word=vance · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-beat-with-ari-melber&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP