Will “Tariff” be said on The Beat next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was said on The Beat in 2 of 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 25, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 1, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 59% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 episodes we have transcripts for (Aug 25, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Beat with Ari Melber
Tariff
- Probability
- 59% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 2 episodes
- said in 1 of 1 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Tariff |  Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Tariff / Tariffs | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often is “Tariff” said on The Beat?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was said on The Beat in 2 of 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 25, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 1, 2026.
- What is the probability “Tariff” is said on The Beat next time?
- 59%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Beat: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-beat-with-ari-melber/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-beat-with-ari-melber&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-beat-with-ari-melber&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP