The New York Times (front page): Front page, May 24, 2026
Polymarket What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (May 18 - May 24)
Markets
28 words · 7 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Abortion | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Blockade | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| City | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| War | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Xi | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Beijing | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Africa | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bet / Odds | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cult | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Europe | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Federal Reserve | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fiscal | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Invasion | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lied | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Looted | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Massacre | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pro-Life / Pro life | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Putin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Regime | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock market | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stupid | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorist | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thunder | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire / Cease-fire | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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