Will “China” appear on the next NYT front page?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “China” appeared on the NYT front page on 3 of 3 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 3, 2026 (100%), most recently on May 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 front pages we have transcripts for (Aug 30, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 6.

47%from settlement history only · n=3counts: anyone
Last 10
3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 3 times
Counts
anyone
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=china

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The New York Times (front page)

China

Probability
47% · n=3
Settled
3/3 (100%)
Last 8 front pages
said in 6 of 8

Next listing counts: anyone

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Tuesday, October 20otherNYT front-page headlines, October 19–25, 2026 · Oct 25, 2026In transcript

China Exports Fuel Its Growth

Monday, October 12otherNYT front-page headlines, October 12–18, 2026 · Oct 18, 2026In transcript

A Reporter Returns to a China Hushed by Intense Paranoia

Monday, September 28otherNYT front-page headlines, September 28–October 4, 2026 · Oct 4, 2026In transcript

E.U., China and India vs. Deep U.S. Ties

Monday, September 21otherNYT front-page headlines, September 21–27, 2026 · Sep 27, 2026In transcript

China’s Unfulfilled Pledge

Tuesday, September 15otherNYT front-page headlines, September 14–20, 2026 · Sep 20, 2026In transcript

China Warns of A.I. Threat

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 5 - October 11) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 28 - October 4) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 21 - September 27) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 14 - September 20) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 7 - September 13) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 31 - September 6) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 24 - August 30) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 17 - August 23) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 10 - August 16) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 3 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
May 24, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes
May 10, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes
May 3, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes

Questions

How often does “China” appear on the NYT front page?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “China” appeared on the NYT front page on 3 of 3 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 3, 2026 (100%), most recently on May 18, 2026.
What is the probability “China” appears on the NYT front page next time?
47%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: anyone.

Cite parrot.markets, “NYT front page: ‘China’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/nyt-front-page/words/china (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=china · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nyt-front-page&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP