NYT front-page headlines, September 28–October 4, 2026
In the week ending Oct 4, 2026, 5 of the 11 words Polymarket listed appeared in front-page headlines; Parrot’s count agreed with all 11 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
11 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 11 of 11- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 72%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 62%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Fear | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 60%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Star | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Vote / Voter / Votes | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 62%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Space | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fashion | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lawyer | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Party | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsPrint page (OCR) · The New York Times, front page (print) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full text is at the source.
1 match for “China”; 1 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
E.U., China and India vs. Deep U.S. Ties
Where the listed words were said
Trump-Press Tiff Takes a Turn
Trapped Between Iran and Washington as It Wrestles Militias
Fear in the Heart of Kyiv
Family Apartment in Ukraine Evaded Damage for Years, Awaiting the Inevitable
In India, a Food Safety Inspector Is a Rock Star
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/nyt-front-page:2026-10-04:front_page · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=nyt-front-page:2026-10-04:front_page · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP