Michelle Bowman: Remarks, Oct 1, 2026
Kalshi What will Michelle Bowman say during her remarks on modernizing financial regulation?
Markets
14 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 72%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Basel III | Yes | 72%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Transparency | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Leverage Ratio | Yes | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Stress Test | Yes | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump / President | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| SVB / Silicon Valley Bank | No | 72%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Private Credit | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Recession | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Budget / Deficit | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Productivity | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mortgage | No | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBOWMANMENTION-26OCT01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP