Michelle Bowman: Keynote, Oct 6, 2026
Kalshi What will Fed Gov Bowman say during Community Banking Research keynote?
Markets
14 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 63%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Transparency | Yes | 60%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Leverage Ratio | Yes | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| SVB / Silicon Valley Bank | Yes | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump / President | Yes | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Merger | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Basel III | No | 63%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Stress Test | No | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Private Credit | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Recession | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Cyber / Cybersecurity | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Budget / Deficit | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBOWMANMENTION-26OCT06 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP