Michelle Bowman: Speech, Mar 31, 2026
Kalshi What will Michelle Bowman say during her consumer banking speech?
Markets
14 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Basel III | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Credit | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mortgage | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Regulator / Regulation / Regulatory | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SVB / Silicon Valley Bank | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Leverage Ratio | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rate Cut | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stress Test | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXFEDGOVMENTION-26MAR31 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP