# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · rally 2024-10-24 · 20 words · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-las-vegas-rally · as_of 2026-10-27T00:39:28Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2024-10-24 · tn/th blank: no rally transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-las-vegas-rally (every P row; the listed term = w): This is a market group on predicting the statements made by Trump during his rally in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 24, at 7:00 PM ET.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Trans	tran	1	24	18	0.75	YnYYYYYYYY	0.8	hist	yes
Frack/Fracking 3+ times	frack|fracking#3	3	2	2	1	YY	0.63	hist	yes
American Dream 3+ times	american dream#3	3	1	1	1	Y	0.6	hist	no
MAGA 3+ times	maga#3	3	11	7	0.64	nYnYYYYnnY	0.6	hist	yes
Pocahontas	pocahonta	1	2	1	0.5	nY	0.54	hist	yes
Hispanic 3+ times	hispanic#3	3	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.51	hist	no
Border 25+ times	border#25	25	11	5	0.45	nYYYYnnnnY	0.51	hist	no
NAFTA	nafta	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.5	hist	no
Mars	mar	1	1	0	0	n	0.48	hist	no
Kamala 10+ times	kamala#10	10	1	0	0	n	0.46	hist	yes
Border 35+ times	border#35	35	1	0	0	n	0.42	hist	no
Tax 30+ times	tax#30	30	2	0	0	nn	0.36	hist	yes
Weave	weave	1	2	0	0	nn	0.35	hist	no
Tampon	tampon	1	29	10	0.34	nnnYnnnnnn	0.32	hist	no
Crypto/Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	31	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	0.06	hist	no
COVID	covid	1	0	0			0.51	prior	yes
God 5+ times	god#5	5	0	0			0.51	prior	no
Korea	korea	1	0	0			0.51	prior	no
Reno	reno	1	0	0			0.51	prior	no
Russia 5+ times	russia#5	5	0	0			0.51	prior	no