Will Donald Trump say “China” 8+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “China” 8+ times at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 31, 2024 (100%), most recently on Nov 3, 2024. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (8+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
China 8+ times
- Probability
- 48% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…fake news says, "Why does he spend time on the white?" Well, I don't like having the head of China come into the White House
…in the United States of America. We don't want you going to China. We don't want you going to Japan. We don't want you going…
…say that a very important element is the fact that Russia and China have not participated or participated in a much smaller way than they…
…ones are coming in from all over the world. From Canada, from Mexico, from Germany, they come from China. They're coming from all over the
…we're building more car plants than we've ever built before. We're leading China in SI, super intelligence. We're leading them. We're leading everybody. We're leading…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2024 | China 8+ times |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 31, 2024 | China 8+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “China 8+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “China” 8+ times at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 31, 2024 (100%), most recently on Nov 3, 2024.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “China 8+ times” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘China 8+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/china-8plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=china%20%288%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP