# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · posts_window by 2026-05-10 (settled) · 16 words · P p:what-will-trump-post-this-week-may-4-may-10 · as_of 2026-10-25T13:34:22Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2026-05-10 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 posts window transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-post-this-week-may-4-may-10 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-21T04:05:46Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Venezuela	venezuela	27	19	0.7	nYYYYYYYYY	1	1	0.63	hist	0	0	no	1
FBI	fbi	7	6	0.86	YYnYYYY	1	0	0.59	hist	0	0	yes	1
Ass / Shit	ass|shit	13	9	0.69	YYYYnYYYnY	1	0	0.52	hist	0	0	yes	1
King	king	18	10	0.56	nYnYnYYYnY	1	0	0.5	hist	0	0	yes	1
Secret Service	secret service	8	6	0.75	YnYYYYnY	1	1	0.42	hist	0	0	yes	1
Hell	hell	32	13	0.41	nnnnnYYnYn	1	1	0.4	hist	0	0	yes	1
Terminate the Filibuster	terminate the filibuster	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.38	hist	0	0	no	1
No Card	no card	0	0			1	0	0.38	hist	0	0	no	1
Blockade	blockade	11	4	0.36	nYYnYnnYnn	1	0	0.36	hist	0	0	yes	1
Paper tiger	paper tiger	6	2	0.33	nnYnnY	1	0	0.36	hist	0	0	no	1
Ceasefire / Cease-fire / Cease fire	cease fire|ceasefire	0	0			1	0	0.35	hist	0	0	yes	1
Jimmy / Kimmel	jimmy|kimmel	0	0			1	0	0.35	hist	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	358	38	0.11	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.19	hist	0	0	no	1
Islamabad	islamabad	0	0			1	0	0.39	prior	0	0	no	1
Senior	senior	0	0			1	0	0.39	prior	0	0	yes	1
TrumpIRA / TrumpIRA.gov	trumpira|trumpiragov	0	0			1	0	0.39	prior	0	0	no	1