# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · posts_window by 2026-05-17 (settled) · 21 words · P p:what-will-trump-post-this-week-may-11-may-17 · as_of 2026-10-25T11:53:16Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2026-05-17 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 posts window transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-post-this-week-may-11-may-17 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-21T04:05:46Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
King	king	19	11	0.58	YnYnYYYnYY	1	0	0.57	hist	0	0	no	1
Ceasefire / Cease-fire / Cease fire	cease fire|ceasefire	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.51	hist	0	0	no	1
Senior	senior	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.51	hist	0	0	yes	1
DOJ	doj	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.47	hist	0	0	yes	1
ICE	ice	26	9	0.35	nnYYYnYYnY	1	1	0.47	hist	0	0	no	1
Game	game	0	0			1	0	0.46	hist	0	0	yes	1
AG / Attorney General	ag|attorney general	2	1	0.5	Yn	1	0	0.42	hist	0	0	yes	1
Football	football	9	5	0.56	YYYnnYYnn	1	1	0.41	hist	0	0	no	1
Court	court	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.4	hist	0	0	yes	1
Baby	baby	7	4	0.57	YnYYnYn	1	1	0.4	hist	0	0	no	1
Black	black	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.4	hist	0	0	yes	1
Brazil	brazil	5	2	0.4	YYnnn	1	1	0.38	hist	0	0	no	1
World Cup	world cup	22	9	0.41	YnnnnYnnnn	1	0	0.36	hist	0	0	yes	1
Virus	virus	0	0			1	0	0.36	hist	0	0	no	1
Coal	coal	9	2	0.22	nnnYnnnYn	1	1	0.35	hist	0	0	no	1
No cards / All the cards	all the card|no card	0	0			1	0	0.35	hist	0	0	no	1
UFC	ufc	23	10	0.43	nYYYnnYnnn	1	0	0.33	hist	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	111	28	0.25	nYYnYnnYnn	1	0	0.32	hist	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	368	38	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.17	hist	0	0	no	1
Table	table	0	0			1	1	0.4	prior	0	0	yes	1
Trust	trust	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	0	0	yes	1