Will “Earthquake / Quake” appear on the next NYT front page?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Earthquake / Quake” appeared on the NYT front page on 1 of 4 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 9, 2026 (25%), most recently on Aug 11, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 front pages we have transcripts for (Sep 6, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- anyone
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearanceThe New York Times (front page)
Earthquake / Quake
- Probability
- 39% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
- Last 8 front pages
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: anyone
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Earthquake / Quake |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Earthquake / Quake | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Earthquake / Quake | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Earthquake / Quake | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does “Earthquake / Quake” appear on the NYT front page?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “Earthquake / Quake” appeared on the NYT front page on 1 of 4 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 9, 2026 (25%), most recently on Aug 11, 2026.
- What is the probability “Earthquake / Quake” appears on the NYT front page next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “NYT front page: ‘Earthquake / Quake’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/nyt-front-page/words/earthquake-or-quake (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=earthquake%20%2F%20quake · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nyt-front-page&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP