Mark Rutte: Remarks, Apr 16, 2026
Kalshi What will Mark Rutte say during his press conference?
Polymarket What will NATO Secretary General say during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia?
Markets
32 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drone | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ally / Allied / Alliance | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Budget / Spending | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Defense | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Defense 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NATO 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Ukraine 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Strait / Hormuz | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hormuz | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Alliance | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Europe | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Putin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| GDP | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hungary | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigration | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| International Law | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mercenary | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Percent 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Too late | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Artificial intelligence / AI | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-nato-secretary-general-say-during-meeting-with-prime-minister-of-czechia · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP