# JD Vance (jd-vance) · speech 2025-12-21 · 18 words · P p:what-will-jd-vance-say-at-americafest-on-december-21 · as_of 2026-10-27T14:50:46Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2025-12-21 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01 (under 2 speech transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-jd-vance-say-at-americafest-on-december-21 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during the scheduled event.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
God 3+ times	god#3	3	3	3	1	YYY	1	0	0.59	hist	yes
American Dream	american dream	1	8	6	0.75	nYnYYYYY	1	0	0.58	hist	yes
Inflation	inflation	1	4	3	0.75	YYnY	1	0	0.49	hist	yes
Border / Immigration 5+ times	border|immigration#5	5	0	0			1	0	0.48	hist	yes
Political Violence	political violence	1	4	2	0.5	YnYn	1	0	0.45	hist	no
Healthcare	healthcare	1	7	3	0.43	nnnYnYY	1	1	0.44	hist	no
Working Class / Middle Class	middle class|working class	1	2	1	0.5	nY	1	0	0.43	hist	no
House / Housing	house|housing	1	0	0			1	1	0.42	hist	no
Trump 10+ times	trump#10	10	2	1	0.5	Yn	1	0	0.39	hist	yes
Free Speech	free speech	1	3	1	0.33	nnY	1	0	0.39	hist	yes
Israel	israel	1	6	2	0.33	YnnnYn	1	0	0.35	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	6	2	0.33	YnYnnn	1	1	0.34	hist	no
America First	america first	1	5	1	0.2	nYnnn	1	0	0.3	hist	yes
Radical Left	radical left	1	6	0	0	nnnnnn	1	0	0.2	hist	no
Afford / Affordable / Affordability 4+ times	afford|affordability|affordable#4	4	0	0			1	0	0.39	prior	no
Biden 3+ times	biden#3	3	0	0			1	1	0.39	prior	no
Charlie / Kirk 15+	charlie|kirk#15	15	0	0			1	0	0.39	prior	no
Regime Change	regime change	1	0	0			1	0	0.39	prior	no