Lemonade Stand: Episode, May 6, 2026
Polymarket What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (May 6)
Markets
29 words · 10 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crazy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Housing | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Patreon | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Anthropic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Brain | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Korea | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Scam | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Xi | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sweden | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Amazon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Canada | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Energy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gavin / Newsom | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gold | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Golden | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hoax | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hormone | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Powell | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Socialism | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Amortization | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Arbitrage | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Collateral | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Economy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Federal Reserve | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fiduciary | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-on-the-next-lemonade-stand-podcast-may-6 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP