Will “Hoax” be said on Lemonade Stand next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Hoax” was not said on Lemonade Stand in the only episode with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 6, 2026.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 2, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- anyone
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Lemonade Stand
Hoax
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: anyone
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…brought to you by Constellation. Doug, you know how Aiden's always saying climate change is a Chinese hoax? Yeah, he does say that a lot.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Hoax |  Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often is “Hoax” said on Lemonade Stand?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Hoax” was not said on Lemonade Stand in the only episode with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 6, 2026.
- What is the probability “Hoax” is said on Lemonade Stand next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “Lemonade Stand: ‘Hoax’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/podcasts/lemonade-stand/words/hoax (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=lemonade-stand&word=hoax · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=lemonade-stand&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP