Lemonade Stand: Episode, May 13, 2026
Polymarket What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (May 13)
Markets
23 words · 11 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yes | 61%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crazy | Yes | 61%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 61%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Korea | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran | Yes | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Anthropic / Claude | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sweden / Swedish | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Energy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Arbitrage | Yes | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | Yes | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Scam | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Xi | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Blockade | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ghost | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Technology | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gold | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hormone | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Socialism | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Amortization | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Collateral | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Federal Reserve | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fiduciary | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-on-the-next-lemonade-stand-podcast-may-13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP