What is the probability “Biden” is said on World News Tonight next time?

38%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.

Will “Biden” be said on World News Tonight next time?

Name: World News Tonight: “Biden” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 23, 2026, “Biden” was not said on World News Tonight in any of the 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 12, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 1. 1 later episode without a transcript yet (Oct 23, 2026) is not counted.

38%from settlement history only · n=2counts: any host or reporter

Last 10: 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
Streak: not said the last 2 times
Counts: any host or reporter

Updated Oct 23, 2026, 23:25 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

ABC World News Tonight

Biden

Probability: 38% · n=2
Settled: 0/2 (0%)
Last 8 episodes: said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: any host or reporter

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 14, 2026 · Oct 14, 2026 · 6:32In transcript

…Trump now nearly two years into his term, blaming his predecessor, Joe Biden. Whenever I have a news conference, somebody will stand up, say, Mr.…