# World News Tonight (world-news-tonight) · tv_episode 2026-07-28 · 17 words · K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26JUL28 · as_of 2026-10-24T22:20:57Z
# scope K host_or_reporter · n/y settled before 2026-07-28 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26JUL28 ({word} = w of K rows): If any host or reporter says {word} as part of ABC World News Tonight with David Muir , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Iran (3+ times)	iran#3	3	12	10	0.83	nYYnYYYYYY	0.68	hist	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	14	10	0.71	YYnYYYYYYn	0.61	hist	yes
ICE	ice	1	8	4	0.5	YYYYnnnn	0.41	hist	no
Biden	biden	1	1	0	0	n	0.36	hist	no
Blanche	blanche	1	1	0	0	n	0.36	hist	no
Earthquake	earthquake	1	1	0	0	n	0.35	hist	yes
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	1	1	0	0	n	0.35	hist	no
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	3	0	0	nnn	0.29	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	8	1	0.12	nnnnnYnn	0.27	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	1	4	0	0	nnnn	0.25	hist	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	12	1	0.08	nnnnnnnnnn	0.19	hist	no
Anthropic / Claude	anthropic|claude	1	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Covid / Pandemic	covid|pandemic	1	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Fauci	fauci	1	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Herbert / Madison Beer	herbert|madison beer	1	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Kamala	kamala	1	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Midterm	midterm	1	0	0			0.41	prior	no