Will “Earthquake” be said on World News Tonight next time?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Earthquake” was said on World News Tonight in 2 of 4 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 16, 2026 (50%), most recently on Aug 26, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 13, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- any host or reporter
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
ABC World News Tonight
Earthquake
- Probability
- 43% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: any host or reporter
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Earthquake |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Earthquake | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Earthquake | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Earthquake | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Earthquake” said on World News Tonight?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “Earthquake” was said on World News Tonight in 2 of 4 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 16, 2026 (50%), most recently on Aug 26, 2026.
- What is the probability “Earthquake” is said on World News Tonight next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.
Cite parrot.markets, “World News Tonight: ‘Earthquake’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/world-news-tonight/words/earthquake (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=world-news-tonight&word=earthquake · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=world-news-tonight&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP