# World News Tonight (world-news-tonight) · tv_episode 2026-07-16 · 13 words · K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26JUL16 · as_of 2026-10-25T00:56:55Z
# scope K host · n/y settled before 2026-07-16 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26JUL16 ({word} = w of K rows): If David Muir says {word} as part of ABC World News Tonight with David Muir , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Iran (3+ times)	iran#3	3	5	4	0.8	YYnYY	0.57	hist	no
ICE	ice	1	2	2	1	YY	0.55	hist	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	7	4	0.57	nnYYYYn	0.5	hist	yes
New York	new york	1	1	1	1	Y	0.49	hist	yes
World Cup	world cup	1	5	2	0.4	nnnYY	0.42	hist	yes
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	2	0	0	nn	0.31	hist	yes
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	5	1	0.2	nYnnn	0.3	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	2	0	0	nn	0.3	hist	no
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Earthquake	earthquake	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Election	election	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Epstein	epstein	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Teleprompter	teleprompter	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no