# World News Tonight (world-news-tonight) · tv_episode 2026-07-10 · 14 words · K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26JUL10 · as_of 2026-10-24T11:48:27Z
# scope K host · n/y settled before 2026-07-10 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26JUL10 ({word} = w of K rows): If David Muir says {word} as part of ABC World News Tonight with David Muir , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Charlie / Kirk	charlie|kirk	1	2	2	1	YY	0.52	hist	no
Iran (3+ times)	iran#3	3	2	2	1	YY	0.52	hist	no
Graham / Platner	graham|platner	1	1	1	1	Y	0.45	hist	yes
Trump	trump	1	1	1	1	Y	0.45	hist	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	4	2	0.5	nnYY	0.43	hist	yes
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	2	1	0.5	nY	0.4	hist	no
Hormuz	hormuz	1	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.35	hist	yes
Ebola	ebola	1	1	0	0	n	0.31	hist	no
World Cup	world cup	1	2	0	0	nn	0.27	hist	no
Russia / Ukraine	russia|ukraine	1	0	0			0.26	hist	no
NATO	nato	1	3	0	0	nnn	0.24	hist	no
Home / Housing	home|housing	1	0	0			0.36	prior	no
UFC	ufc	1	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Wildfire	wildfire	1	0	0			0.36	prior	no