# World News Tonight (world-news-tonight) · tv_episode 2026-08-11 · 14 words · K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26AUG11 · as_of 2026-10-26T20:39:46Z
# scope K host_or_reporter · n/y settled before 2026-08-11 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26AUG11 ({word} = w of K rows): If any host or reporter says {word} as part of ABC World News Tonight with David Muir, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	13	9	0.69	YYYYYnYYYY	0.63	hist	yes
Iran (3+ times)	iran#3	3	22	16	0.73	nYYYYYnYnn	0.57	hist	yes
Election	election	1	1	0	0	n	0.36	hist	no
Russia / Russian	russia|russian	1	1	0	0	n	0.36	hist	yes
Kardashian	kardashian	1	1	0	0	n	0.34	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	15	3	0.2	YnnnnnYnYn	0.3	hist	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	20	1	0.05	nnnnnnnnnn	0.14	hist	no
Air Force One	air force one	1	0	0			0.4	prior	yes
Cuba / Cuban	cuba|cuban	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Eclipse	eclipse	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Luigi / Mangione	luigi|mangione	1	0	0			0.4	prior	yes
North Korea / North Korean	north korea|north korean	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Toyota	toyota	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Vaccine / Vaccination	vaccination|vaccine	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no