Will “Luigi / Mangione” be said on World News Tonight next time?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Luigi / Mangione” was said on World News Tonight in 2 of 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 11, 2026 (100%), most recently on Aug 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 13, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- any host or reporter
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
ABC World News Tonight
Luigi / Mangione
- Probability
- 46% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: any host or reporter
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Luigi / Mangione |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Luigi / Mangione | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often is “Luigi / Mangione” said on World News Tonight?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “Luigi / Mangione” was said on World News Tonight in 2 of 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 11, 2026 (100%), most recently on Aug 14, 2026.
- What is the probability “Luigi / Mangione” is said on World News Tonight next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.
Cite parrot.markets, “World News Tonight: ‘Luigi / Mangione’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/world-news-tonight/words/luigi-or-mangione (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=world-news-tonight&word=luigi%20%2F%20mangione · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=world-news-tonight&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP