# World News Tonight (world-news-tonight) · tv_episode 2026-08-04 · 17 words · K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26AUG04B · as_of 2026-10-24T13:41:08Z
# scope K host_or_reporter · n/y settled before 2026-08-04 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26AUG04B ({word} = w of K rows): If any host or reporter says {word} as part of ABC World News Tonight with David Muir , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Iran (3+ times)	iran#3	3	16	13	0.81	YYYYYYnYYY	0.69	hist	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	18	13	0.72	YYYYYnYYYn	0.64	hist	yes
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	7	4	0.57	nnnYYYY	0.57	hist	no
Blanche	blanche	1	5	3	0.6	nnYYY	0.56	hist	no
Cyberattack / Cyber Attack	cyber attack|cyberattack	1	0	0			0.49	hist	no
Cyclosporiasis / Cyclospora	cyclospora|cyclosporiasis	1	5	3	0.6	YYnnY	0.47	hist	no
Hormuz	hormuz	1	6	3	0.5	nYnYYn	0.44	hist	yes
SpaceX	spacex	1	0	0			0.37	hist	yes
UFC	ufc	1	1	0	0	n	0.36	hist	yes
Ukraine	ukraine	1	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.35	hist	yes
IRS	irs	1	0	0			0.35	hist	no
Midterm	midterm	1	4	1	0.25	nYnn	0.34	hist	yes
Ebola	ebola	1	2	0	0	nn	0.33	hist	no
ICE	ice	1	12	4	0.33	YYnnnnnnnn	0.28	hist	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	15	1	0.07	nnnnnnnnnn	0.16	hist	no
Powerball	powerball	1	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Subway	subway	1	0	0			0.41	prior	no