# JD Vance (jd-vance) · keynote 2026-09-29 · 17 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26SEP29 · as_of 2026-10-24T03:01:04Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-09-29 · tn/th last 5 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-09-03 (under 2 keynote transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26SEP29 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Democrat	democrat	1	45	34	0.76	YYYYYYYYYY	5	4	0.65	hist	yes
Biden	biden	1	62	42	0.68	nYYYYYYYYY	5	4	0.58	hist	yes
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	15	10	0.67	YnYYnnYYnY	5	2	0.55	hist	no
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	43	23	0.53	YYYnYYnYYY	5	3	0.55	hist	yes
Healthcare	healthcare	1	31	15	0.48	nYnYYnYYYY	5	3	0.54	hist	yes
Fraud	fraud	1	41	23	0.56	nYYYnYYYYY	5	3	0.53	hist	yes
Medicare / Medicaid	medicaid|medicare	1	9	6	0.67	YnYnYYYnY	5	2	0.52	hist	yes
Obama / Obamacare	obama|obamacare	1	0	0			5	3	0.5	hist	yes
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	1	22	9	0.41	YnnnYYnnYY	5	3	0.43	hist	no
Autism / Autistic	autism|autistic	1	6	1	0.17	nYnnnn	5	0	0.27	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	49	8	0.16	nnYnYnnnnn	5	3	0.26	hist	yes
Cancer	cancer	1	0	0			5	0	0.41	prior	yes
Chronic Disease	chronic disease	1	0	0			5	0	0.41	prior	no
GLP-1 / GLP 1	glp 1	1	0	0			5	0	0.41	prior	no
Obese / Obesity	obese|obesity	1	0	0			5	0	0.41	prior	no
Pharma / Pharmaceutical	pharma|pharmaceutical	1	0	0			5	1	0.41	prior	no
TrumpRX	trumprx	1	0	0			5	1	0.41	prior	no