# Todd Blanche (todd-blanche) · briefing 2026-09-15 · 22 words · K k:KXTBLAMENTION-26SEP15 · as_of 2026-10-25T00:50:05Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-09-15 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-08-22 (under 2 briefing transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTBLAMENTION-26SEP15 ({word} = w of K rows): If Todd Blanche says {word} as part of Press Briefing on September 15 , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Fraud	fraud	1	5	5	1	YYYYY	1	0	0.69	hist	yes
ICE	ice	1	0	0			1	0	0.58	hist	no
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	4	3	0.75	YYYn	1	1	0.54	hist	yes
Fentanyl	fentanyl	1	3	2	0.67	YnY	1	0	0.51	hist	yes
Midterm / Election	election|midterm	1	0	0			1	0	0.51	hist	yes
Weaponize / Weaponized / Weaponization	weaponization|weaponize|weaponized	1	3	2	0.67	YYn	1	0	0.5	hist	yes
Epstein	epstein	1	7	4	0.57	YnnYYYn	1	0	0.5	hist	no
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	8	4	0.5	YnnYYYnn	1	1	0.45	hist	yes
FBI	fbi	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	1	1	0.43	hist	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	1	4	1	0.25	nnnY	1	0	0.38	hist	yes
Vance	vance	1	0	0			1	0	0.38	hist	no
Sanctuary	sanctuary	1	1	0	0	n	1	1	0.36	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	1	4	1	0.25	nYnn	1	1	0.35	hist	yes
China / Chinese	china|chinese	1	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.32	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	5	0	0	nnnnn	1	0	0.24	hist	yes
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	0	0			1	0	0.44	prior	no
Hormuz	hormuz	1	0	0			1	0	0.44	prior	no
ID / Identification	id|identification	1	0	0			1	0	0.44	prior	no
Iran (3+ times)	iran#3	3	0	0			1	0	0.44	prior	no
Nuclear	nuclear	1	0	0			1	0	0.44	prior	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	0	0			1	0	0.44	prior	no
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	1	0	0			1	0	0.44	prior	no