Will Todd Blanche say “Illegal Alien”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Todd Blanche said “Illegal Alien” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 7, 2026 (33%), most recently on Sep 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 episodes we have transcripts for (Aug 22, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Todd Blanche
Illegal Alien
- Probability
- 49% · n=6
- Settled
- 2/6 (33%)
- Last 2 episodes
- said in 0 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…fraudulently registering -- fraudulently registering to vote. What we are seeing is illegal aliens voting, noncitizens who are not eligible to vote, voting, or those…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Illegal Alien |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Todd Blanche say “Illegal Alien”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Todd Blanche said “Illegal Alien” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 7, 2026 (33%), most recently on Sep 15, 2026.
- What is the probability Todd Blanche says “Illegal Alien” next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Todd Blanche: ‘Illegal Alien’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/todd-blanche/words/illegal-alien (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=todd-blanche&word=illegal%20alien · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=todd-blanche&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP