Will Todd Blanche say “Midterm / Election”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Todd Blanche said “Midterm / Election” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 15, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 episodes we have transcripts for (Aug 22, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Todd Blanche
Midterm / Election
- Probability
- 57% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 2 episodes
- said in 1 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
6 counted; 20 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Midterm / Election |  Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Midterm / Election | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Todd Blanche say “Midterm / Election”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Todd Blanche said “Midterm / Election” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 15, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 4, 2026.
- What is the probability Todd Blanche says “Midterm / Election” next time?
- 57%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Todd Blanche: ‘Midterm / Election’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/todd-blanche/words/election-or-midterm (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=todd-blanche&word=election%20%2F%20midterm · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=todd-blanche&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP