Will Todd Blanche say “China / Chinese”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Todd Blanche said “China / Chinese” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 19, 2026 (20%), most recently on Sep 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 episodes we have transcripts for (Aug 22, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Todd Blanche
China / Chinese
- Probability
- 46% · n=5
- Settled
- 1/5 (20%)
- Last 2 episodes
- said in 0 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…together but does that -- are they're separate issues with actors in China and companies in China and bad actors, that has existed long before…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | China / Chinese |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 15, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 6, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 19, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Todd Blanche say “China / Chinese”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Todd Blanche said “China / Chinese” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 19, 2026 (20%), most recently on Sep 15, 2026.
- What is the probability Todd Blanche says “China / Chinese” next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Todd Blanche: ‘China / Chinese’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/todd-blanche/words/china-or-chinese (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=todd-blanche&word=china%20%2F%20chinese · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=todd-blanche&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP